'Russia uses hybrid threats on Svalbard'

Stian Bones, a professor of history at UiT Arctic University of Norway, says Russia has carried out many hybrid operations and provocations on Svalbard. He gave the view in a podcast interview with the Barents Observer. They discussed an article he co-wrote on hybrid threats in high latitudes. He defines such threats as harmful activity in the grey zone between war and peace, run with malign intent to breed distrust in authorities and wear down the capacity of the state affected. He places Norway in the middle of that range.

Bones names several reasons for Russian interest. The archipelago and Bear Island form an entrance to the Barents Sea, home base of the Northern Fleet. Russia also keeps fisheries in the fisheries protection zone and mined coal in earlier decades. He says it wants to monitor Norwegian and Western communications and satellite activity, and has a long history there. On the 1925 Svalbard Treaty, which made 2025 the 100th year of Norwegian rule, he says Norway itself raised the sovereignty question with backing from Great Britain and the United States. He recalls that Molotov proposed in 1944 to scrap the treaty in favour of joint Norwegian-Russian management, which led nowhere.

As examples of provocation he cites the 2015 stop on Svalbard by Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin, who was under sanctions. Bones argues that Norwegian efforts to tighten travel rules gave Moscow a chance to claim Norway broke the spirit of the treaty. He also points to a Russian Orthodox cross put up in Pyramiden in 2023 with Bishop Yakov present and Trust Arktikugol (Russia's state-owned company on Svalbard) involved. It was placed outside the treaty property so that Norway would have to respond. He describes bilateralization as a Russian method that has largely failed with Norway. By this he means efforts to bind a smaller neighbour into bilateral talks.

Bones says Russian influence on Norwegian officials has been very limited, though the narratives find some audience abroad and inside Russia. He says the hybrid activity has grown since 2022, linked to the war in Ukraine. He considers a military takeover of Svalbard implausible, given long-range weapons.